SACRAMENTO (Reuters) - Californians turned out in low numbers on Tuesday in a primary that appeared set to shake up the state's congressional electoral line-up following election rule changes and the redrawing of U.S. congressional district boundaries.
While new maps and new rules may have changed the way the game of California politics is played, making some districts more competitive across party lines, early official estimates of statewide turnout hovered at just over 15 percent.
In one of the most closely watched races, just a trickle of voters cast ballots on a sunny southern California day in California's 30th district in Los Angeles County, where two Democratic incumbents were facing off.
Under California's new open primary rules, the two top vote getters in each district will proceed to the general election in November regardless of party, so two Democrats or two Republicans could be competing for the same seat come November 6.
In addition, redistricting has tossed some longtime incumbents into the ring against each other after a decade of remarkable stability in the state's majority Democratic delegation in the House of Representatives.
Among those casting ballots in the 30th district were 82-year-old Ester Berrenson and her husband of 64 years, 86-year-old Manny, who walked to their polling station during the breezy afternoon. Both voted for Democratic incumbent Brad Sherman against fellow Democratic incumbent Howard Berman.
"He comes out and talks to us," Manny Berrenson said, explaining why he and his wife voted for Sherman. "He goes to the high school at least half a dozen times a year. He goes there and talks about what he's doing."
Sherman has held a slight lead in recent polling. Due to the "top two" rule, both are likely to advance to a final competition in November, analysts said.
"Tonight is far from over, but we're confident about our momentum moving into the general election," a senior adviser to Berman's re-election campaign, Brandon Hall, said in a statement.
The changes in California are seen to favor Democrats in a state that gave President Barack Obama a 24-point margin of victory over his Republican rival John McCain in 2008, analysts said.
Two incumbent Democratic congresswomen, Janice Hahn and Laura Richardson, also faced off against each other in the 44th district in Los Angeles County in another closely watched race.
GAME CHANGE
For years, political stability in the nation's most populous state was a result of the deliberate creation of electoral districts to favor incumbents, a process known as gerrymandering. In 263 elections from 2002 to 2010, only one congressional seat changed political party.
But ahead of this election, a non-partisan citizen's commission was put in charge of redrawing congressional districts. The number of districts did not change, but the boundaries were adjusted to reflect population shifts since the last national census in 2000.
"With nonpartisan redistricting and this new 'top two' primary system, California suddenly becomes very interesting and one of the more competitive states in the entire country," said Kyle Kondik, political analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Redistricting has also created a "huge leap" in the number of districts that have percentages of minority voters topping 50 percent, according to Paul Mitchell, a Democratic consultant in California. Majority-Hispanic districts increasing from 19 to 29, and the only majority-Asian legislative district in the continental United States was formed.
In their quest to win back a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats would have to gain at least four or five seats in California, which Kondik said would be difficult but not impossible.
Republicans control the House with a 242-190 majority, with three seats vacant. Outside California and Illinois, Democrats are mainly playing defense, trying to hold seats they already have.
NATIONWIDE BATTLE
Primaries were also held on Tuesday in New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota and Iowa.
In Montana, the U.S. Senate battle is one of the hottest in the nation with Montana's only member of the House, Republican Denny Rehberg, challenging first-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester.
Both candidates are known across the state and are expected to easily win their respective party primaries on Tuesday.
In Iowa, State Representative Pat Grassley - the grandson of U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley - won his primary, defeating another Republican in the Iowa House in a contest forced upon him and State Representative Annette Sweeney by redistricting.
Republicans are targeting the New Mexico U.S. Senate seat of retiring Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman in their quest for a U.S. Senate majority in 2012. Democrats hold a 51-47 majority, with two independents who usually vote with Democrats.
Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Martin Heinrich are projected to win their respective party races and run against each other for the coveted Bingaman seat, according to Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling Inc in Albuquerque.
In New Jersey, polls are closed in the vote to fill the seat of U.S. Representative Donald Payne, the state's first black congressman, who died in March. His son is among the candidates.
(Reporting by Mary Slosson; Additional reporting by Dan Boyce in Montana, Zelie Pollon in New Mexico, Edith Honan in New York, Kay Henderson in Iowa, and R.T. Watson and Alex Dobuzinskis in California; Editing by Cynthia Johnston, Jackie Frank and Lisa Shumaker)
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