NFL Playoff Preview: NFC Divisional

No. 3 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers

Key Matchup -- The key to San Francisco?s 30-22 week one victory over Green Bay in Lambeau was their pass rush. Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, and Justin Smith got after Aaron Rodgers, forcing last year?s MVP out of his comfort zone. Green Bay?s offensive line is different now, especially with Evan Dietrich-Smith starting over Jeff Saturday at center. Still, the Packers have struggled with pass protection all year, especially on the road. Smith?s nursing a triceps injury, though, and is likely to play at less than 100%. The ramifications of his injury could be significant enough to allow Rodgers to find his rhythm.

Unsung Hero -- James Jones entered the year probably fourth or fifth priority in Green Bay?s passing attack. However, he?s emerging as Rodgers? go-to target with a league leading 14 touchdown catches. The 49ers are sure to focus on Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, but Jones has earned Rodgers? trust throughout the course of the season. With the exception of Randall Cobb, nobody else is as vital to Green Bay?s receiving corps.

Difference Maker -- While San Francisco's pass rush and secondary is talented enough to shutdown Green Bay?s passing game, Green Bay's defense is also playing at a high-level. Clay Matthews, particularly, is making impact plays since returning in week 15. Over that span, he has five sacks and a forced fumble. He had a lot of success against San Francisco left tackle Joe Staley earlier in the year, but Matthews' biggest role is containing Colin Kaepernick and San Francisco?s running game.

Prediction -- It?s hard to pick against San Francisco at home, especially in a night game, but it?s equally as hard to pick Kaepernick over Rodgers. The Green Bay quarterback is playing at San Francisco in a meaningful game for the first time in his career. Motivation drives Rodgers, and there are plenty of motivating factors at work in this matchup. For example, the 49ers passed him over with the No. 1 pick in '05. Nonetheless, I don?t doubt the 49ers are capable of slowing him down, but I question whether Kaepernick can make enough big plays to offset the negative ones. The uncertainty with Kaepernick, plus Smith?s injury, has me leaning Green Bay.

Packers 27 49ers 21

No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 1 Atlanta Falcons

Key Matchup -- Seattle?s secondary is the best in football. They have two huge corners on the outside (Richard Sherman & Brandon Browner) and they get outstanding safety play from Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. Pete Carroll won the chess match against an injured Robert Griffin III last week, but his secondary faces stiff competition with Matt Ryan and Atlanta?s potent passing attack.

Unsung Hero -- One of the keys to suppressing a strong pass rush is a strong screen game. Jacquizz Rodgers isn?t on the same level of New Orleans? Darren Sproles, but he?s a similar player. He?s dynamic, especially with the ball in space and his presence in the backfield sometimes keeps linebackers and defensive lineman at home. Look for him to make a couple of big plays in the passing game.

Difference Maker -- Arguably, the NFL?s greatest tight end, Tony Gonzalez has never won a playoff game. He didn?t in Kansas City, though had few opportunities, and he?s come up short in Atlanta. With their attention on Julio Jones and Roddy White at wide receiver, look for Gonzalez to lead Atlanta in targets this Sunday. Seattle did moderately struggle against tight ends, and the Falcons will take any advantage they can exploit.

Prediction -- On a neutral field, I believe Seattle is the best team in football. They run the ball well, play excellent defense, and have an efficient quarterback behind center. They have all the makings of a Super Bowl caliber team. However, there are other factors at play. The Seahawks are not a particularly strong road team (4-5 record) and will probably face an atmosphere more hostile this week in Atlanta than last week in Washington. In addition, losing Chris Clemmons is a game-changer. His absence allows Atlanta to focus on Bruce Irvin. It?s also worth noting that Seattle?s kicker is also out for this game. These two injuries may have changed the landscape of the NFC playoffs, as without pass rush -- Ryan will find holes in Seattle?s defense.

Falcons 24 Seahawks 17

Source: http://row12.com/article/2043/NFL_Playoff_Preview_NFC_Divisional/

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